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The race to reach the World Cup: What to look out for this international break

Mar 25, 2026 — 6 min read
The race to reach the World Cup: What to look out for this international break
Wales will face two home matches in Cardiff to book a World Cup ticket (AP)

With a 2026 World Cup shrouded in uncertainty fast approaching, this month will see the remaining spots at the finals filled, as a mixture of home nations and potential debutants seek a ticket to North America.

With 42 of the 48 countries heading to the tournament known, and the draw having already taken place, six final spots are to be decided before the end of the month; Four from Europe and two from elsewhere.

Even then, the delicate situation regarding Iran's participation, plus travel logistics for other countries, given the conflict in the Middle East has cast doubts over a number of factors, not the least given FIFA's unclear ruling on the process for replacements.

The European play-offs consist of 16 nations, a combination of qualifying group runners-up and Nations League best performers who failed to qualify automatically. Teams are split into four different groups, each one consisting of a semi-final and final.

Azzurri's tricky route

If four-time winners Italy are to avoid missing a third successive World Cup, the worst run in their history, they'll need to navigate through a tricky-looking path A. Gennaro Gattuso's men first face Northern Ireland at the home of Atalanta in Bergamo.

Underdogs Northern Ireland, who qualified through the Nations League, have lost all seven matches ever played away in Italy, most recently back in 2021. Should they get through, the Azzurri will travel to the winners of the other semi-final, with Wales being the more likely opposition.

Craig Bellamy's men host Bosnia in Cardiff, dubbed favourites although still a potentially tricky tie. Bosnia beat Romania to 2nd spot in their qualifying group, and only a draw away to Austria in their final game prevented them from automatically reaching a second World Cup.

Wales turned on the style to reach the play-offs, thrashing North Macedonia 7-1 in Cardiff. Back-to-back defeats to Belgium stopped them topping their group, although a huge advantage of having both their play-off ties at home under the lights awaits them. 

(Winner enters WC Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada and Qatar)

Republic head to Prague

Whether you love international football or despise it, we all remember the scenes in November when Troy Parrott scored a dramatic last second winner in Budapest to eliminate Hungary and send the Republic of Ireland to the play-offs.

A turn of form since September has put Heimer Hallgrimsson's men two wins from qualifying for a first World Cup since 2002. Before the chance to host the final in Dublin, they will need to overcome a tricky semi-final away to Czechia.

Captained by West Ham midfielder Tomas Soucek, the Eastern European side showed some vulnerabilities in the qualifying campaign, losing away to the Faroe Islands, as well as a thrashing in Croatia. That said, they remained unbeaten when playing in Prague, holding Croatia to a draw in the return tie.

The winners will be at home in the final to either Denmark or North Macedonia. Denmark enters the play-offs after their stunning loss to Scotland, while North Macedonia do so on the back of their 7-1 mauling away to Wales. Denmark are aiming to reach a third successive World Cup, which would be the best qualifying run in their history.

(Winner enters WC Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa and South Korea)

A tight Path B

Path B appears to be one of the more unpredictable groupings. The highest seeded, Ukraine, missed out in 2022 after a heart-breaking defeat to Wales.
Still managed by former Tottenham striker Sergiy Rebrov, now into his third year in charge, the quest for a first World Cup appearance since 2006 begins with a clash against Sweden in Valencia.

After reaching the Quarter Finals in 2018, then failing to qualify in 2022, the famous blue and yellow shirts are now managed by Graham Potter. The 50-year-old took charge of the team towards the end of last year, overseeing the conclusion of a dismal qualifying campaign in which they collected two points from a possible 18, a run that included back-to-back defeats to Kosovo.

The winner will face either Poland or Albania in the final. Poland, aiming for a third successive finals' appearance, will be favourites after narrowly missing out on top spot to the Netherlands. Albania's chances of a debut appearance hang on two away victories, although they can be dangerous on their day. Managed by former Arsenal defender Sylvinho, they reached the play-offs by winning at bitter rivals Serbia.

(Winner enters WC Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia)

Kosovo dreams

Going by the FIFA rankings, the lowest seeded team entering the play-offs are Kosovo, one of UEFA's newest members. Losing just one of their six qualifying matches, including a 1-1 draw with Switzerland, they beat Slovenia to second spot. A trip to Slovakia awaits them, a nation most recently thumped 6-0 away to Germany.

The winners will face a challenging home game against either Turkiye or Romania, two nations who last appeared at a World Cup over 25 years ago. Istanbul will host the semi-final, as the Turks missed out on qualifying despite a final day 2-2 draw away to Spain, two months after a 6-0 home drubbing against the same opponents.

(Winner enters WC Group D alongside USA, Paraguay and Australia)

New Caledonia and post McClaren Jamaica

One of the most wide-open Intercontinental play-offs in history is about to take place in Mexico. None of the six sides entering have qualified for a World Cup in the 21st century. The most recent to play at the tournament was Jamaica back in 1998, while two entrants have never qualified before.

Amongst the countries, New Caledonia appear the most unexpected, having taken advantage of an extra spot in an Oceania region dominated by New Zealand. In a part of the world where just playing matches can provide a challenge, New Caledonia have played just six times since the start of 2024.

They will face a Jamaica side in the play-offs who are 80 places above them in the latest FIFA rankings. Under Steve McClaren, the 'Reggae Boys' missed out on an automatic berth at the World Cup, finishing behind Curacao in their group. It was a performance that caused frustration among fans, culminating in Steve McClaren's departure shortly after. Pressure is on with expectations high, entering the play-offs still with an interim in charge.

The winner of this tie will face Africa's DR Congo for a spot at the 2026 World Cup. Their sole appearance at the finals came in 1974, competing under the name Zaire. The Central African nation booked their spot in the play-offs after defeating both Cameroon and Nigeria, more recently facing elimination in the AFCON round of 16 after losing to Algeria. 

(Winner enters WC Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia and Uzbekistan)

Iraq's tough preparation

Iraq are also gearing up for a World Cup play-off, dreaming of adding to their sole appearance at the finals back in 1986. The preparation has been far from ideal, given the travel logistics caused by the current conflict in the Middle East. Manager Graham Arnold has been stuck in the UAE, some of his staff in Qatar, as well as the majority of players in Iraq; all unable to fly. Obtaining Visa's from Mexico was also proving a challenge, with reports saying the obstacles may be too much, and their World Cup dream over.

However, the squad have arrived in North America ready to go. As the second-highest ranked side in the play-offs, they advance straight to the final, effectively one win away from a World Cup spot.

Their opponents will come in the form of Bolivia or Suriname, who first meet in Monterrey. Known for their strong home form due to a high altitude, Bolivia's last appearance at a World Cup was in 1994. They edged Venezuela to 7th spot in CONMEBOL qualifying, collecting 17 of their 20 points in their home country. So much is the struggle on their travels, they have only won two competitive games outside of Bolivia since the start of 2000 — once in 2015 and again last year.

Suriname, located in South America, are the second CONCACAF entrant. They were edged out by Panama in their qualification group. They are led by Henk ten Cate, a name more familiar to a handful of Chelsea fans, having served as Avram Grant's assistant in 2007. 

The teams improvement has co-incided with the Football Associations push to find Dutch players who could be eligible to represent them, as a Dutch speaking nation and former colony of the Netherlands. In their 26 man squad heading to Mexico, 23 of them were born in the Netherlands, while 24 of the group play their football in Europe.

(Winner enters WC Group I alongside France, Senegal and Norway)

Published by
Tom Winch
Tom Winch
West Ham season ticket sufferer and freelancer specialising in Dutch football and International minnows. Often found watching football from Brazil to Bhutan
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