The short answer: probably. The honest answer: it depends on what happens while Bukayo Saka is out.
Ten games into the season, Arsenal are top, the defence is miserly and yet the same conversation keeps coming back after every narrow win: is the attack good enough to win the league again? I've been through the results, the numbers and the quotes from the last few weeks, and here's where I land.
The Case For: This Team Wins in Ways That Don't Need Fireworks
1. The defence does the heavy lifting. David Raya has kept four straight league clean sheets. When you rarely concede, one goal is usually enough, which is exactly why Arsenal keep winning 1-0 at places like Nottingham Forest and against Hull City.
2. The chances are there. Against Hull, Arsenal had 21 shots and 1.26 xG to Hull's seven shots and 0.36. At Napoli in the Champions League, the xG was 4.05 for a single goal. That's not a broken attack. That's finishing variance, and variance tends to even out over 38 games.
3. Set pieces have come alive. Before the Everton game, Arsenal had gone 12 matches without a non-penalty set-piece goal (a 13-game wait in total). Ezri Konsa ended it, and Gabriel added a header. Set pieces accounted for 0.79 of Arsenal's 1.77 xG that day. If that continues, it adds a reliable second route to goal, which matters against sides that sit deep.
4. The bench keeps deciding games. Madueke's 80th-minute winner at Forest. Eze's goal off the bench at Bayern. Gyökeres and Merino coming on against Hull as the pressure built to Ødegaard's 72nd-minute winner. Arteta calls them the "finishers," and the label has stuck for a reason.
Highlights: Arsenal 1-0 Hull City #ARSHULL ⚽ Martin Odgeaard https://t.co/bqkcvRCnYN
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5. They're still in the title race. After the Everton game, Arsenal were level on 21 points with Manchester City, who'd just lost at Aston Villa. Arsenal and City were only the third pair of top-flight clubs ever to both win at least seven of their first eight matches.
The Case Against: Where the Attack Can Be Exposed
1. Saka's injury. He went off with a quadriceps injury in the 2-2 draw at Bayern, and one report suggests he could be out for around two months. That figure comes from one source and hasn't been confirmed by the club, so treat it with caution. Either way, losing your best wide attacker for a stretch of the season is a real blow.
2. Madueke is good, but he's not Saka yet. He's been excellent in recent weeks, with the Forest winner and a strong showing against Hull (three shots, two on target, and a hand in the goal). But the ratings for that Hull game ranged from 6 to 8.2, and the criticism that he sometimes lacks the final touch is fair. He's a very good option, but he doesn't replace Saka's end product.
3. No ruthless centre-forward. The Havertz-or-Gyökeres question still hasn't been settled. Gyökeres impressed when he started against Everton, but Havertz had a quiet game against Hull. And the summer search for a top-class forward, which reportedly included Morgan Rogers, Vinícius Júnior and Julián Álvarez, ended without a signing. Tzolis arrived and started well, but he's been hurt.
4. Low blocks still cause problems. At Forest, Arsenal had 75% of the ball and one shot on target. Against Hull's five-man defence, it took 21 shots to score once. Both were wins, but both were the kind of game that can easily become a draw. Over a full season, a few of those draws add up.
5. One-goal margins are fragile. Since Arteta took over, Arsenal have won 32 league games 1-0, the joint-highest in the Premier League, level with Everton. That tells you the team is good at grinding. It also tells you how thin the margin often is.
What Needs to Happen
For me, four things decide it.
Madueke, Eze and Tzolis need to keep producing on the wings. With Saka out, the wide positions need to supply goals and assists, not just effort. The signs so far are encouraging, but the real test is sustaining it across a congested winter schedule.
The chances need to go in. The good news is that the underlying numbers are strong. If the conversion rate drifts up toward what the xG suggests, the "attack problem" largely disappears.
Set pieces must stay a weapon. If the Everton game was the start of a trend rather than a one-off, Arsenal have a way to unlock stubborn defences without needing a flash of individual brilliance.
The January window matters. If the club adds a proper forward, my answer moves from "probably" to a confident yes. Without it, Arteta is relying on the same group to cover a long injury to his most dangerous wide player.
Verdict
Arsenal's title hopes don't rest on the attack being spectacular. They rest on the defence staying elite, the set pieces staying dangerous, and the bench staying sharp. On that evidence, they're among the favourites to win it again, and the attack probably does enough.
But "enough" is a thin margin over 38 games, and the next two months without Saka will test it. If Madueke and Eze keep delivering and the finishing catches up with the chances, I'd back Arsenal to go back-to-back. If the goals dry up and the 1-0 wins start turning into 0-0 draws, the table will start to look a lot tighter.
What do you think? Can this attack carry the title? Let me know in the comments.
COYG.
